02/11/2007

Tuesday's loser will miss the NCAAs

By Mark Urban
Staff writer

Big Ten basketball usually is about winning at home, picking a couple up on the road and getting in the NCAA tournament.

If Michigan State and Michigan can do that the rest of the way this season, they'll both be 8-8.

Sorry, that will not be enough to make it in the field of 65 this season. Most times it would be, but the Big Ten — like it was last season — isn't as good as advertised.

Sure the top half of the conference is strong with Wisconsin, Ohio State and Indiana. But there's a bunch of teams mucking it up in the middle and that includes both teams from the state.

So that means Tuesday's match-up between Michigan State and Michigan in East Lansing is even bigger. The team that loses the showdown, the first of the season between the Spartans and Wolverines, will be in the NIT.

The winner between U-M and State could wind up there as well by finishing in the middle of the league, which doesn't deserve the five or six that usually go to the Dance.

Besides, the success of mid-majors like George Mason shows that the teams in these 'lesser leagues' can fare well in the NCAA tournament so look for that trend to continue.

If neither Michigan nor Michigan State qualify as one of the nation's best 65 teams, they'll point to recent collapses as the reason why.

The Spartans big blowup was Wednesday's 62-38 loss at Purdue, the fourth straight for MSU. As we all know by now, playing on the road is tough, but 12 POINTS IN A HALF.

Actually, this loss also proved that Drew Neitzel should be the Big Ten player of the year.

Wisconsin's Alando Tucker? Ohio State's Greg Oden? Neitzel?

Is there any a player that has a bigger impact on their team's success than Neitzel? He brought MSU back from a 20-point halftime deficit at Ohio State and when he doesn't score like he did against Purdue, he also has a major impact on the success (or lack thereof) of the Spartans.

If Michigan doesn't make the tournament for the big boys, which has become the norm thanks to some lovely NCAA violations that followed the Fab Five, it can look to the 69-62 loss to Iowa on Jan. 31.

Ahead by as many as 14 points in the first half and 11 with just over 13 minutes to play at home, these are the games a team has to get. These are the losses that separate the pretenders from the contenders.

These are also the type of poor performances that get coaches fired, which might befall Tommy Amaker after all.