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May 23, 2001

Boomer numbers soaring in region

The 45- to 54-year-olds led all age groups in the region with a 74.8 percent increase
By BILL ECHLIN
Record-Eagle staff writer
       TRAVERSE CITY - Population experts like to talk about the pig-in-a-python effect, and the newest census figures for northwest Lower Michigan have all the earmarks of that.
      Aging baby boomers are causing a middle-age bulge.
      Overall, the population of the 13 counties grew 22.3 percent from 1990 to 2000 and most age groups saw some growth.
      The baby boomers continue to bloat their age brackets. Their children - the echo boomers - are following in their footsteps, a piglet in the python.
      The number of boomers - born 1946-1962 and now 39 to 55 years old - soared in northwest Lower Michigan. The 45- to 54-year-olds led all age groups with a 74.8 percent increase - from 28,701 in 1990 to 50,160, more than three times the growth rate of the overall population. The 55-59 age group also showed a healthy jump in numbers - from 12,824 to 19,319 for a 50.4 percent rate of increase.
      Those two age groups are expected to have a significant effect in coming years on area demand for health care, senior housing and services for the elderly. The region already has a slightly larger contingent of older residents compared to the state as a whole.
      WHERE ARE THEY?
      Perhaps the most unusual change in new census data released Wednesday is a 9.4 percent drop in the 25- to 34-year-olds, but it follows a Michigan trend.
      The region's youngest population group - pre-schoolers 0 to 4 years old, - also dropped slightly from 20,793 in 1990 to 20,715. The 5- to 9-year-olds grew by a scant 6.8 percent - from 22,417 to 23,946.
      That could mean empty classrooms, laid-off teachers and program cuts unless new migration into the area includes a lot of families with young kids. That wasn't the case over the past 10 years.
      The average household size dipped from 2.61 people to 2.48 in the last decade, while the average family size declined slightly from 3.05 to 2.93 people.
      The 20- to 24-year-olds barely grew - increasing only 2.5 percent. That in turn has caused a serious shortage of entry-level and younger skilled workers as more factories move into the region, new stores open and homes are built to take care of all the new people moving in.
      The shortage has stimulated economic development organizations throughout the region, which in past years had focused almost exclusively on jobs creation, to also take on recruitment of skilled workers from outside the region.
      "All communities are struggling to get adequate workers," said Matt Meadors, vice president at the Traverse Area Chamber of Commerce who works in community and economic development. "Younger folks who grow up here have a tendency to leave the region and explore other options outside of the community. But we also see that later in life, they recall the quality of life here and they tend to come back when, perhaps, they are a little older and wiser."
      Because of that trough between the boomers and the echo boomers, employers will have to either tailor entry level operations around the unique requirements and limitations of students in the 15- to 19-year-old group, where growth in numbers has kept up with the overall trend, or workers 30 years old and above, who usually are looking for more in the way of wages and benefits.
      GROWING OLDER
      Overall, we're getting older. The median age for the region rose to 37.3 years old from 33.2 in 1990. That shift was most pronounced in Crawford, Kalkaska and Leelanau counties.
      At Munson Medical Center in Traverse City, already half of all services provided are to Medicare patients 65 and older even though that group makes up only 15.2 percent of the population. That's up from 14.6 percent in 1990. Seniors 65 and older increased to a total of 52,489, up 26.9 percent over the decade compared to 22.3 percent for the population overall.
      Plans are in the works at Munson to expand surgical facilities, beef up the gerontology and Alzheimer's treatment units and add specialists who most often work with older patients.
      "Demand has increased 2 to 3 percent every year for the 16 years I've been here, but we anticipate demand will grow at an even faster rate," said Ralph Cerny, president of Munson Medical Center. "We'll add to our radiology capacity so we can do more at the outpatient clinic and our lab services demand is growing, so two floors of the new six-story building here will be just for lab facilities."
      Munson is also working on recruitment to be sure the hospital has enough staff with training to care for older people, Cerny said.
      At Grand Traverse Pavilions, the county-owned nursing care and senior housing complex in Traverse City, the entire operation will continue the rapid pace of growth seen in the last several years. The Pavilions not only cares for people who can pay in full for their care but offers lower income people assistance on a sliding scale.
      "We've been anticipating this aging trend since the development of our master campus plan was done in 1990," said Patti DeAgostino, public relations director. "From what we've seen in previous decades, the needs for housing, care, and recreation for seniors are all increasing."
      The Pavilions will move ahead with two more independent and assisted living "cottage" projects at the Grand Traverse Commons campus, plus put together plans for a wellness center that would include a health club for residents. When the cottage projects are done, the Pavilions will have about 60 units available.
      "Retirement is not going to be as our fathers and mothers knew it," DeAgostino said.
      Seniors will be generally healthier, more active with many still working and even seeking more education. With that in mind, the Pavilions will be shaped to allow for all that, while at the same time providing increasingly more intense levels of care as people need them.
      Demand for all levels of care is strong, she said. The nursing home has a six-to-eight month waiting list for the most intensive skilled nursing care. All the assisted living units there are full. The first cottage with independent and supported living filled in the first four months after it opened, and contracts have been signed for 25 percent of the units in the newest cottage, which is scheduled to open in November.
      The total number of households grew by 28 percent, but the traditional married-couple-with-kids-under-17 households increased by just 8 percent. In contrast, households with kids under 17 headed by a single female grew by nearly 15 percent. Even so, married couples with children under 17 still make up 81 percent of all family households, compared to 83 percent in 1990.